With Tropical Storm Igor forming this morning in the far eastern Atlantic, we have now have had a named storm somewhere in the Tropical Atlantic Basin every day since August 22.
Before we address Tropical Storm Igor, we have enough data in to provide a snapshot on Hermine's trek (and is doing) across Texas.
Locally, two-day rainfall totals in Galveston County ranged from near 4" in the northwest part of the County, to 3.21" at League City, 1.50" on the East End of Galveston and only 0.68" at Scholes Field in the western part of the city. Top winds were 37-mph sustained and a 45-mph gust at Scholes Field during a passing squall.
Statewide, wind speeds ranged from 53-mph sustained and a 70-mph gust in Harlingen , 45-mph sustained and 62-mph gusts at Brownsville, 39-mph sustained and 52-mph gusts at Alice to 41-mph sustained and 57-mph gusts at Randolph Field in San Antonio. Rainfall amounts of up to 10.11" of rain had been measured northwest of Austin with rainfall still continuing this morning. Precipitation amounts at other locales through this morning were: 13.20" at Georgetown, 12.99" at Copperas Cove, 11.66" at Killeen, 11.08" in the West Lake Hills section of Austin, and 10.83" in Round Rock.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded the low pressure center (AL 91) south of the Cape Verde Islands into the Season's 9th named storm. At 11 am, AST, Tropical Storm Igor was centered near 13.7 N and 23.5 W. Sustained winds were 40-mph and central barometric pressure was 1005 MB (29.68"). Igor was moving west with intensity models generally predicting strengthening to hurricane force with 2-3 days and tracking models favoring a continued west to west-northwest track through the coming five days.
Tropical Storm Hermine is tracking north-northwest across south Texas on a path that will take it west of San Antonio. The big story with Hermine may be excessive rainfall and flash floods over central Texas and the Hill Country.
Locally, the impact may be a little more modest. Certainly, we have had gusty winds (up to 37-mph at Scholes Field in Galveston, rough surf and tides running 1-2 feet above normal levels and some scattered thunderstorm activity. In addition a tornado watch has been issued for a large section of southeast Texas, including Galveston County. But, rainfall totals so far have generally been less than inch over Galveston County, averaging around 0.60" in the northern areas of the County to 1/3 to 1/2 inch over Galveston Island.
While additional rain and a few heavy thunderstorms may be expected through tomorrow and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect, it is clear that areas to our west will bear the brunt of the heavy rain with Hermine. Locations such as Victoria, Kingsville and Alice have already received in excess of 3" and much higher amounts may be possible when the storm encounters the added lift provided by the Hill Country. Needless to say, flash flooding will definitely be a threat in those areas.
Looking ahead, we can anticipate humid, muggy conditions and thunderstorm activity to continue, but to slowly taper off as we move towards the later part of the week. High pressure is expected to build back into the region and this bring a return of more sunshine and lower rain chances by this weekend.
Below are some links to information on Hermine and its potential impact in Texas:
Tropical Depression #10 developed into Tropical Storm Hermine early this morning and is on a track to make landfall near Brownsville, Texas early tomorrow morning. At 8 am, CDT the eight named storm of the 2010 Hurricane Season was centered near 22.4 N and 95.3 W, or about 185 miles east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico.
Sustained winds increased this morning to 45-mph with some intensification possible before the storm moves ashore. Barometric pressure was 999 MB (29.50") and the storm was moving north at 10-mph.
A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the upper-Texas coast with tides expected to run 1 1/2 to 2 feet above normal levels. Of course, this is dependent upon the system's track. If it were to move further north than currently anticipated, then higher tide levels would result.
At the present time, the greatest concern with Hermine seems to be the excessive amounts of rainfall that may occur across south and central Texas as the system moves northwest. Flash floods will be a real possibility for areas along the Rio Grande and for sections of the Hill Country west of San Antonio. The Galveston area may also receive some heavy rains as moisture flows into the area on the northeast side of Hermine. Our rains are generally not expected to reach the amounts possible to our south and west.
Update: 11:00 pm, CDT: Tropical Depression #10 has formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. At 10:00 pm CDT, Tropical Depression #10 was located about 325 miles east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico near 20.7 N and 95.2 W. Sustained winds were estimated at 30-mph and barometric pressure at 1003 MB (29.62"). The depression was moving north at 7-mph. This path should keep it well away from the upper-Texas coast, though increased moisture on the backside of the system should bring a good chance of rain to the area and brisk easterly winds will result in tides running 3-4' above low water levels.
This coming week will take us right into the peak of the hurricane season.
It has been a fairly decent season as far as folks along the upper-Texas coast are concerned. Although Hurricane Alex, Tropical Depression #2 and Tropical Storm Bonnie all made it into the Gulf of Mexico, none of them presented any real threat to our area.
There are now a couple of features in the Tropics, though, that do present some potential problems for residents along the Gulf of Mexico. The closest, a broad 1007 MB low situated just east of Vera Cruz, Mexico and a surface low pressure trough extending north towards the Texas coast, probably offers more hope than concern. While the National Hurricane Center gives the area a 60% chance of developing over the coming 24-48 hours, most models put the system ashore in Mexico fairly quickly. Deep moisture in the wake of this low pressure center and trough may bring much needed rainfall to southeast Texas.
The second feature, still 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, is more vexing to me. The disturbance, a 1009 MB low pressure area that constitutes the remnants of former Tropical Storm Gaston, is expected to track west in contrast to recent systems in that area that have turned north into the Atlantic. The latest tracking models place the system near Hispaniola in five days. We all know that westward moving systems in that area often track right into the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, upper-level high pressure expected to build across the region from the Bahamas to Texas late next week, may further encourage a more westerly track and promote low wind shear over the region.
As if all of that were not enough, intensity models suggest strongly that Gaston will not only redevelop, but will reach hurricane intensity with 3-5 days. The last thing on earth I wish to see is a hurricane moving west across the northern Caribbean.
It is far too soon to panic about this. The system will encounter fairly robust wind shear over the coming couple of days and could still get turned north by a trough over the East Coast. Hopefully, our luck will continue and we will not need to fret over a system in the Gulf of Mexico, but, this is something we definitely want to watch this coming week.
Below are links to some information on these systems:
A complex weather pattern is keeping forecasters more than busy. Close to home an area of thunderstorms is tracking south towards Galveston County in advance of a weak cool front. The thunderstorm cluster seems likely to bring rain to Galveston County this afternoon, while the cool front "may" bring low humidity levels and sunny skies to the area this weekend.
Regarding this weekend's weather, if the front moves off the coast, then we are in for a short spell of cooler nights and warm dry days. If it stalls near or right along the coast, shower activity could persist through the weekend. Currently forecasters are leaning towards the later scenario, with the front making it far enough off the coast to bring mostly sunny skies and less humid conditions for the weekend.
Meanwhile, we have Hurricane Earl tracking north-northeast on a path that will take it parallel to the U.S. East Coast, then just east of Cape Cod, and finally into Nova Scotia. At 11 am, AST Earl was centered near 36.2 N and 73.6 W. The hurricane had decreased to a Category 1 storm and was packing 85-mph sustained winds. Barometric pressure was 961 MB (28.38"). Earl was moving north-northeast at 21-mph. To the southeast, a disorganized Tropical Storm Fiona was bearing down on Bermuda. At the same time, the weakening storm was centered near 29.0 N and 66.4 W. Sustained winds were 45-mph, but barometric pressure had risen to 1010 MB (29.82"). The tropical storm was moving north-northeast at 13-mph.
Further east in the Tropics, we have a couple of systems worth monitoring. One, a 1008 MB low that is the remnants of former Tropical Storm Gaston, is given a 40% chance of redevelopment. This system is perhaps the biggest threat to us in the long-run. If the weak system continues to track west, it is expected to re-intensify. The GFS model shows it approaching the Texas coast in a couple of weeks as a major hurricane. Fortunately, the GFS is often a little too aggressive in developing these storms and other models hint that it could turn northwest or north in response to a low pressure trough in the western Atlantic. We shall see. The second is another disturbance moving off the African coast with a 20% chance of development.
In other words, there is more than enough going on at the present time to keep weather forecasters very busy.
Below are some links to more information on the weather features mentioned above:
Now it is official. With records going back to 1871, August, 2010 was the hottest August ever in Galveston and the second hottest month ever observed on the Island.
The record was not unexpected, considering that August temperatures have run above-normal for 9 of the 11 months from 2000 through 2010. The summer-time warming trend actually extends back nearly 30 years now and first became evident in the 1980's, when 7 of the 10 summers (June through August) experienced warmer than normal conditions. This continued through the 1990's with 9 of the 10 years that decade having warmer than normal summer temperatures.
The hot temperature pattern also became evident in the number of days with temperatures running 90 degrees or above. The average number of 90 degree days jumped from 9.9 per year in the 1970's to 18.3 in the 1980's. It further increased to 46.0 days per year in the 1990's and rose to 55.3 days per year from 2000 through 2009.
No wonder our air conditioning bills have soared!
It is important to note that the percentage of warmer than normal summers have continued to increase despite the fact that the averages have been adjusted upwards (long-term temperature averages are based on 30-year periods, adjusted at the end of each decade). For example, the summer (June-August) temperature average in Galveston has increased from 82.6 degrees from 1951-1980, to 82.7 degrees for the period from 1961-1990 and 83.6 degrees for 1971-2000. Based on preliminary records, this average is going to jump up some more when the "new normals" are posted next year.
As for me, I am more than ready for Fall to get here after this summer. I don't mind heat, but cooler temperatures would be more than welcome at this point.
Meanwhile, Large and dangerous Hurricane Earl has re-intensified to Category 4 status and poses a major threat to the North Carolina coast and a potential threat to much of the East Coast and New England. As a consequence, Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of eastern North Carolina, while Tropical Storm Warnings extend from the North Carolina/Virginia border to Sandy Hook, New Jersey and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a stretch of the New England coastline from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While Earl should begin a slow weakening process as early as sometime on Thursday, it will still be capable of producing hurricane conditions and extremely high tide levels, depending upon the storm's exact track. Any deviation to the west of the projected path could bring substantially more dangerous conditions to a highly populated area of the East Coast.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gaston has formed from T.D. #9 in the east-central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Fiona continues moving northwest with little change in intensity. At 5 pm, AST Earl was centered near 26.3 N and 73.3 W. Sustained winds were back up to 135-mph and central barometric pressure had dropped to 941 MB (27.79"). At the same time, Tropical Storm Fiona was located near 20.2 N and 62.9 W. It is looking a little ragged this afternoon and is being impacted some by outflow from Hurricane Earl. Sustained winds remain at 60-mph and barometric pressure was 29.44" (997 MB). Fiona was tracking northwest at 20-mph. Finally, newly designated Tropical Storm Gaston was centered near 12.9 N and 32.0 W. Sustained winds were 40-mph and barometric pressure was 1005 MB (29.68"). Gaston was moving west at 15-mph.
Even as Tropical Storm Danielle loses steam, a newly formed tropical storm and a major hurricane keep the action going in the Tropics.
Hurricane Earl strengthened into a Category 4 storm this afternoon with 135-mph sustained winds and a barometric pressure of 948 MB (27.99"). Hurricane force winds extend out 70-miles from the center and tropical storm force winds out to 200 miles. At 5 pm, AST Earl was located near 19.3 N and 64.7 W, or about 110 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The system was moving west-northwest at 15-mph with a projected path that takes it perilously close to the North Carolina coast.
Meanwhile, AL 97 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Fiona. The center of Fiona, a large and still fairly disorganized system, was centered near 14.4 N and 48.7 W. Sustained winds were 40-mph, mainly north and east of the center and central pressure was 1007 MB. Fiona was moving west at 21-mph. Finally, Danielle has been downgraded to a tropical storm with 70-mph winds. The system was moving east-northeast in the North Atlantic near 41.3 N and 49.0 W.
Below are links to additional information on these storms:
A UTMB retiree, he produces a daily weather forecast for Galveston.com, offers courses on various aspects of climate through the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at UTMB and serves as a lecturer for the Elder Hostel program at Texas A&M-Galveston.
Stan lives in Galveston with his wife, Margaret, who is a local artist, certified master gardener and master naturalist.
